A CA–Markov-Based Simulation and Prediction of LULC Changes over the Nyabarongo River Basin, Rwanda

Over the past few decades, growth of population and development economy have had a significant impact on way land is used covered (LULC) in Nile Nyabarongo River basin. However, there limited knowledge about patterns use mechanisms that drive changes these because human activities. Therefore, it crucial to examine how cover are shifting this area, identify factors responsible for changes, forecast future patterns. This study sought (1) evaluate LULC from 1990 2020 (2) predict fluctuations until 2060. By analyzing data years 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, simulated area next 30 using transition matrix Markov chain model. The classified into five categories: forestland, grassland, cropland, settlement, water. results revealed will be 2030 forest projected decrease by 801.7 km, 771.6 508.2 while cropland expand 6307.2 6249.2 6420.6 km during period. grassland experience small increase 761.1 802.4 859.1 settlement also grow 355.2 407.4 453.2 km. In contrast, water 55.9 50.5 40 ongoing pattern LULCC expected persist over three with an grassland. study’s findings can provide valuable insights planners resource managers developing fair management policies entire region, enabling them make well-informed decisions.